Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Frost wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 49.5% vs Johnson 45.7% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 90.8%
Defensive zone
Frost 76.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 82.7%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 84.5%
84.5%
15.5%
Frost
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Frost
Johnson
Last 7: Frost 6-1 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
0
Frost
Johnson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Johnson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Johnson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (704)
44.6% (285)
+4.0%
Power Play
55.7% (115)
46.7% (60)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
16.7% (6)
+8.3%
On power play, Frost has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Frost is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (331).
Frost shoots left. Johnson is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (273).
Home / Away
Frost
Johnson
Home
49.9% (399)
50.8% (179)
Away
49.1% (424)
37.8% (172)
By Period
Frost
Johnson
P1
51.2%
41.3%
P2
53.9%
41.8%
P3
42.7%
49.6%
OT
40.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
49.5%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 08:42 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 04:33 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 04:31 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 08:32 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:17 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 13:54 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 02:13 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |