Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Geekie on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Geekie wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Geekie 47.3% vs Dowd 49.9% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Geekie leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Geekie 91.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 83.9%
Neutral zone
Dowd 64.8%
Result
Morgan Geekie favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Geekie
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Geekie
Dowd
Last 10: Geekie 6-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
5
0
Geekie
Dowd
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
5
Geekie
Dowd
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Geekie
1
0
Geekie
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Geekie
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (352)
52.2% (835)
-6.5%
Power Play
63.2% (19)
60.0% (10)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
44.0% (350)
-10.7%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Geekie is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (67).
Geekie shoots right. Dowd is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Geekie
Dowd
Home
48.5% (165)
51.5% (619)
Away
45.0% (209)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Geekie
Dowd
P1
48.5%
51.7%
P2
45.1%
51.6%
P3
45.8%
47.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Geekie
46.0%▼
47.5%
46.5%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 06:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 16:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 05:47 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 04:37 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 15:11 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 11:08 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 07:53 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 07:36 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 02:25 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 10:33 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 07:16 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |