Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Geekie wins 42.1% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Geekie 47.6% vs Aho 50.0% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Geekie 62.3%
Defensive zone
Aho 52.8%
Neutral zone
Geekie 54.2%
Result
Morgan Geekie favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Geekie
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Geekie
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Geekie
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
1
0
Geekie
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Geekie
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Geekie
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (117)
49.9% (851)
-2.9%
Power Play
47.1% (34)
53.5% (144)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
43.3% (60)
-43.3%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +43.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Geekie is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (95).
Geekie shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (364).
Home / Away
Geekie
Aho
Home
45.3% (75)
53.2% (554)
Away
46.8% (79)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Geekie
Aho
P1
43.1%
49.1%
P2
48.1%
50.8%
P3
47.5%
49.7%
OT
50.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
37.0%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Geekie
46.0%▼
47.5%
46.1%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 15:12 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 15:46 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 06:59 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 03:12 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |