Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Jenner on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Jenner wins 44.4% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 50.1% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 64.9%
Defensive zone
Jenner 54.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 52.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Jenner
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Jenner
MacKinnon
Last 7: Jenner 5-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
3
0
Jenner
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
2
1
Jenner
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Jenner
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (227)
50.0% (992)
-0.2%
Power Play
52.2% (23)
64.9% (148)
-12.7%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (17)
34.4% (32)
+18.5%
On penalty kill, Jenner has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Jenner is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (81).
Jenner shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Jenner
MacKinnon
Home
51.0% (143)
53.3% (591)
Away
49.2% (124)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Jenner
MacKinnon
P1
51.7%
49.9%
P2
40.5%
53.2%
P3
57.3%
50.8%
Final 5 min
52.1%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
50.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 07:44 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:33 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 12:20 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:23 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:54 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 03:33 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |