Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 14-5 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 80.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 52.0%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 66.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 72.7%
27.3%
72.7%
Larkin
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
14
(19 meetings)
5
14
Larkin
MacKinnon
Last 10: Larkin 1-9 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
7
Larkin
MacKinnon
11 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
6
Larkin
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
50.0% (992)
+1.7%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
64.9% (148)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
34.4% (32)
+13.8%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Larkin shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Larkin
MacKinnon
Home
52.4% (647)
53.3% (591)
Away
52.7% (643)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Larkin
MacKinnon
P1
52.2%
49.9%
P2
53.1%
53.2%
P3
51.7%
50.8%
OT
61.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
55.2%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 14:27 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 09:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 12:04 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 08:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 16:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 16:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 03:36 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:19 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 14:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 13:26 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 11:27 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |