Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs MacKinnon 51.4% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 70.7%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 69.0%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 76.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 70.0%
30.0%
70.0%
Tavares
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Tavares
MacKinnon
Last 5: Tavares 1-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
3
Tavares
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
50.0% (980)
+8.0%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
65.1% (146)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
34.4% (32)
+23.5%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +23.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Tavares shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (827).
Home / Away
Tavares
MacKinnon
Home
57.8% (614)
53.3% (591)
Away
57.8% (554)
49.6% (567)
By Period
Tavares
MacKinnon
P1
58.0%
49.6%
P2
56.9%
53.9%
P3
58.4%
50.6%
OT
57.7%
63.6%
Final 5 min
57.8%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
MacKinnon
50.0%▼
53.5%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 15:22 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 07:10 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 13:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 12:29 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 00:55 | Defensive | John Tavares |