Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 60.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 57.3% vs MacKinnon 48.6% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 65.4%
Defensive zone
Staal 91.1%
Neutral zone
Staal 85.0%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 78.3%
78.3%
21.7%
Staal
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Staal
MacKinnon
Last 9: Staal 7-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
1
Staal
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (1,075)
48.2% (849)
+8.4%
Power Play
66.7% (141)
51.0% (151)
+15.7%
Penalty Kill
58.1% (179)
44.7% (47)
+13.4%
On power play, Staal has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Staal is 60.1% vs right-shot opponents (449).
Staal shoots left. MacKinnon is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (705).
Home / Away
Staal
MacKinnon
Home
57.7% (735)
51.2% (521)
Away
57.9% (660)
45.6% (526)
By Period
Staal
MacKinnon
P1
61.8%
49.9%
P2
55.7%
48.0%
P3
56.1%
47.9%
OT
56.8%
25.0%
Final 5 min
60.1%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
57.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2015 | 3 | 18:44 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 30, 2015 | 3 | 07:50 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 30, 2015 | 2 | 18:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 30, 2015 | 2 | 12:07 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 30, 2015 | 1 | 16:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 21, 2015 | 3 | 12:54 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 21, 2015 | 2 | 15:12 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 21, 2015 | 1 | 18:44 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 21, 2015 | 1 | 07:48 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |