Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Staal wins 60.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs MacKinnon 44.2% (+12.1%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 13-1 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 63.2%
Defensive zone
Staal 93.0%
Neutral zone
Staal 90.0%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 78.9%
78.9%
21.1%
Staal
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
1
(14 meetings)
13
1
Staal
MacKinnon
Last 10: Staal 9-1 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
6
0
Staal
MacKinnon
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
5
1
Staal
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.7% (750)
42.8% (1,039)
+13.9%
Power Play
62.5% (120)
50.8% (118)
+11.7%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (153)
46.2% (26)
+0.2%
On even strength, Staal has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Staal is 60.2% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Staal shoots left. MacKinnon is 42.2% vs left-shot opponents (889).
Home / Away
Staal
MacKinnon
Home
58.8% (522)
48.0% (586)
Away
52.7% (501)
39.5% (597)
By Period
Staal
MacKinnon
P1
60.8%
46.1%
P2
55.9%
41.5%
P3
51.7%
43.8%
OT
46.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.5%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
43.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2019 | 3 | 06:47 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 11, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 11, 2019 | 2 | 09:21 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 3 | 06:24 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 2 | 17:44 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 2 | 10:33 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 2 | 04:47 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 1 | 16:32 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 1 | 16:19 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 1 | 13:32 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 1 | 06:41 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |