Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 48.7% vs Sturm 50.9% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 72.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 54.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 57.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 58.2%
58.2%
41.8%
MacKinnon
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
MacKinnon
Sturm
Last 10: MacKinnon 4-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
MacKinnon
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
3
MacKinnon
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (439)
50.8% (126)
-2.3%
Power Play
54.8% (42)
50.0% (2)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
66.7% (6)
-41.7%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +41.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (424).
MacKinnon shoots right. Sturm is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (46).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Sturm
Home
52.5% (221)
54.1% (74)
Away
45.2% (272)
48.3% (60)
By Period
MacKinnon
Sturm
P1
50.5%
48.1%
P2
45.5%
62.0%
P3
48.5%
40.0%
Final 5 min
44.1%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
48.5%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 03:07 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 02:52 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 00:27 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 1 | 16:58 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 1 | 10:21 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 1 | 06:19 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 1 | 06:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 1 | 03:02 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |