Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Sturm 53.6% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 64.6%
Defensive zone
Sturm 92.8%
Neutral zone
Sturm 68.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 64.6%
64.6%
35.4%
MacKinnon
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
MacKinnon
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
0
MacKinnon
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
54.6% (271)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
54.4% (90)
-20.0%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Sturm
Home
53.3% (591)
53.0% (168)
Away
49.6% (581)
56.0% (193)
By Period
MacKinnon
Sturm
P1
49.9%
58.2%
P2
53.2%
53.2%
P3
50.8%
52.3%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 02:45 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 13:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 09:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |