Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +13.9% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Sturm 59.0% (-13.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 63.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 65.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
MacKinnon
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
MacKinnon
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
MacKinnon
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
60.6% (708)
-15.1%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
61.1% (18)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
56.4% (101)
-16.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
MacKinnon shoots right. Sturm is 67.8% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Sturm
Home
47.8% (670)
61.6% (451)
Away
44.6% (644)
58.2% (376)
By Period
MacKinnon
Sturm
P1
45.3%
55.9%
P2
48.5%
58.9%
P3
45.0%
64.6%
OT
33.3%
70.6%
Final 5 min
47.4%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |