Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Sturm 57.1% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 86.6%
Defensive zone
Sturm 50.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 71.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 73.6%
73.6%
26.4%
MacKinnon
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
MacKinnon
Sturm
Last 10: MacKinnon 3-7 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
MacKinnon
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
6
MacKinnon
Sturm
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
62.1% (356)
-12.9%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
75.0% (4)
-20.1%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
38.7% (62)
+10.4%
On power play, Sturm has a +20.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
MacKinnon shoots right. Sturm is 64.3% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Sturm
Home
50.9% (740)
61.8% (191)
Away
49.0% (774)
56.3% (231)
By Period
MacKinnon
Sturm
P1
50.9%
58.0%
P2
51.8%
57.9%
P3
47.1%
60.6%
Final 5 min
51.2%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 16:07 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 15:58 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 13:06 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 07:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 03:14 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 2 | 17:48 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 1 | 18:25 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 1 | 16:37 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 1 | 06:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |