Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 45.9% vs Sturm 52.5% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 75.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 72.5%
Neutral zone
Sturm 51.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 61.8%
61.8%
38.2%
MacKinnon
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
MacKinnon
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
MacKinnon
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (755)
54.0% (480)
-8.2%
Power Play
48.3% (60)
28.6% (7)
+19.7%
Penalty Kill
27.6% (29)
50.0% (102)
-22.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +22.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
MacKinnon shoots right. Sturm is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (199).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Sturm
Home
49.5% (396)
54.0% (287)
Away
41.7% (448)
52.0% (302)
By Period
MacKinnon
Sturm
P1
50.2%
53.5%
P2
43.8%
51.0%
P3
41.4%
55.1%
OT
66.7%
20.0%
Final 5 min
41.0%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2022 | 3 | 17:26 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 3 | 17:09 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |