Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.5% vs 51.4%). MacKinnon wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Acciari shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Acciari 51.2% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 91.4%
Defensive zone
Acciari 87.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 52.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 72.0%
72.0%
28.0%
MacKinnon
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
MacKinnon
Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Acciari
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Acciari
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
53.0% (285)
-3.0%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
31.3% (16)
+33.6%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
50.8% (183)
-16.4%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +33.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
MacKinnon shoots right. Acciari is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (107).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Acciari
Home
53.3% (591)
53.2% (267)
Away
49.6% (581)
49.3% (217)
By Period
MacKinnon
Acciari
P1
49.9%
53.1%
P2
53.2%
51.1%
P3
50.8%
50.6%
OT
66.7%
40.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Acciari
38.0%▼
46.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 10:59 | Neutral | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 13:15 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 13:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 06:14 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |