Scouting Report
Radek Faksa holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Faksa shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Faksa 53.2% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 82.4%
Defensive zone
Faksa 84.1%
Neutral zone
Faksa 54.9%
Result
Radek Faksa favored at 69.5%
30.5%
69.5%
MacKinnon
Faksa
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
MacKinnon
Faksa
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Faksa
0
2
MacKinnon
Faksa
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Faksa
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Faksa
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
56.4% (289)
-6.4%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
0.0% (2)
+64.9%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
49.2% (126)
-14.8%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +64.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Faksa shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Faksa is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (144).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Faksa
Home
53.3% (591)
54.9% (182)
Away
49.6% (581)
53.2% (235)
By Period
MacKinnon
Faksa
P1
49.9%
61.1%
P2
53.2%
51.3%
P3
50.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Faksa
54.0%▲
50.5%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 17:53 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 05:03 | Defensive | Radek Faksa |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 04:56 | Defensive | Radek Faksa |