Scouting Report
Radek Faksa holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Faksa on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Faksa shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Faksa 53.7% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 73.8%
Defensive zone
Faksa 71.4%
Neutral zone
Faksa 53.5%
Result
Radek Faksa favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
MacKinnon
Faksa
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
MacKinnon
Faksa
Last 8: MacKinnon 4-4 Faksa
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Faksa
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Faksa
1
3
MacKinnon
Faksa
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Faksa
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Faksa
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
56.4% (401)
-10.9%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
77.8% (9)
-21.4%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
45.5% (110)
-5.5%
On power play, Faksa has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Faksa shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
MacKinnon shoots right. Faksa is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (200).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Faksa
Home
47.8% (670)
49.0% (249)
Away
44.6% (644)
59.4% (271)
By Period
MacKinnon
Faksa
P1
45.3%
58.2%
P2
48.5%
53.6%
P3
45.0%
52.4%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Faksa
54.0%▲
50.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 17:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 16:36 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 08:10 | Defensive | Radek Faksa |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 15:49 | Defensive | Radek Faksa |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 13:27 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 19:11 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 10:33 | Neutral | Radek Faksa |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 03:35 | Defensive | Radek Faksa |