Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). MacKinnon wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Greig 45.0% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Greig leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Greig 50.3%
Defensive zone
Greig 56.9%
Neutral zone
Greig 56.7%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
MacKinnon
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
MacKinnon
Greig
Last 10: MacKinnon 4-6 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Greig
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
2
3
MacKinnon
Greig
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greig
2
5
MacKinnon
Greig
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
45.2% (414)
+0.3%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
28.6% (14)
+27.8%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
28.6% (21)
+11.4%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
MacKinnon shoots right. Greig is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (161).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Greig
Home
47.8% (670)
46.4% (196)
Away
44.6% (644)
41.9% (253)
By Period
MacKinnon
Greig
P1
45.3%
40.8%
P2
48.5%
46.4%
P3
45.0%
43.9%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 11:32 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 11:15 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 09:09 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 06:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 00:43 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 07:34 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:29 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 05:06 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 08:49 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 03:06 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 18:28 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 15:28 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 05:37 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |