Nathan MacKinnon vs Ridly Greig
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Greig 48.8% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 14-12 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 66.1%
Defensive zone
Greig 74.9%
Neutral zone
Greig 55.7%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
MacKinnon
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
12
(26 meetings)
14
12
MacKinnon
Greig
Last 10: MacKinnon 7-3 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
8
1
MacKinnon
Greig
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
2
6
MacKinnon
Greig
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greig
4
5
MacKinnon
Greig
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,218)
48.5% (1,133)
-2.4%
Power Play
53.3% (1,412)
56.8% (74)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
46.5% (172)
-3.7%
On penalty kill, Greig has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
MacKinnon shoots right. Greig is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (634).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Greig
Home
49.7% (6,444)
49.8% (681)
Away
44.0% (6,689)
47.7% (698)
By Period
MacKinnon
Greig
P1
47.4%
46.3%
P2
46.6%
51.2%
P3
46.1%
48.8%
OT
48.4%
28.6%
Final 5 min
49.0%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 02:15 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 15:46 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 06:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 09:13 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 02:34 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 01:51 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 16:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 06:41 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2 | 15:14 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2 | 12:58 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2 | 05:44 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 11:32 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 11:15 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 09:09 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 06:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 00:43 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 07:34 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:29 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |