Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Greig 53.8% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 64.0%
Defensive zone
Greig 87.7%
Neutral zone
Greig 64.4%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 54.8%
45.2%
54.8%
MacKinnon
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
MacKinnon
Greig
Last 7: MacKinnon 4-3 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
1
MacKinnon
Greig
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
2
MacKinnon
Greig
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Greig
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
53.6% (280)
-4.4%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
61.3% (31)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
56.5% (69)
-7.4%
On penalty kill, Greig has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
MacKinnon shoots right. Greig is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (214).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Greig
Home
50.9% (740)
56.2% (185)
Away
49.0% (774)
53.3% (195)
By Period
MacKinnon
Greig
P1
50.9%
52.8%
P2
51.8%
51.6%
P3
47.1%
59.5%
Final 5 min
51.2%
58.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 01:51 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 16:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 06:41 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2 | 15:14 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2 | 12:58 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2 | 05:44 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |