Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Hartman 45.5% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Hartman leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Hartman 67.6%
Defensive zone
Hartman 75.2%
Neutral zone
Hartman 63.8%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 68.5%
31.5%
68.5%
MacKinnon
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
9
(13 meetings)
4
9
MacKinnon
Hartman
Last 10: MacKinnon 3-7 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
1
MacKinnon
Hartman
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
4
MacKinnon
Hartman
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
4
MacKinnon
Hartman
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
44.8% (830)
+5.2%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
47.8% (92)
+17.1%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
37.5% (16)
-3.1%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
MacKinnon shoots right. Hartman is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Hartman
Home
53.3% (591)
45.0% (515)
Away
49.6% (581)
44.9% (423)
By Period
MacKinnon
Hartman
P1
49.9%
46.5%
P2
53.2%
39.9%
P3
50.8%
48.6%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 00:14 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 06:53 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:58 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:43 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 17:53 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 17:37 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 19:25 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 15:52 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 11:51 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 03:51 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |