Nathan MacKinnon vs Ryan Hartman
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 17 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Hartman 45.3% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Hartman leads 33-26 in 59 meetings
Offensive zone
Hartman 59.0%
Defensive zone
Hartman 60.7%
Neutral zone
Hartman 60.9%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 60.2%
39.8%
60.2%
MacKinnon
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
33
(59 meetings)
26
33
MacKinnon
Hartman
Last 10: MacKinnon 3-7 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
12
8
MacKinnon
Hartman
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
3
14
MacKinnon
Hartman
17 total
Neutral Zone
Even
11
11
MacKinnon
Hartman
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,218)
45.2% (4,235)
+0.9%
Power Play
53.3% (1,412)
47.4% (443)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
42.4% (262)
+0.4%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
MacKinnon shoots right. Hartman is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,381).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Hartman
Home
49.7% (6,444)
46.7% (2,589)
Away
44.0% (6,689)
43.6% (2,351)
By Period
MacKinnon
Hartman
P1
47.4%
46.0%
P2
46.6%
42.9%
P3
46.1%
46.8%
OT
48.4%
53.8%
Final 5 min
49.0%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 00:14 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 06:53 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:58 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:43 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 17:53 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 17:37 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 19:25 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 15:52 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 11:51 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 03:51 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:13 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:03 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 08:49 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 01:03 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 01:03 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:43 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 08:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |