Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Hartman 48.1% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 66.9%
Defensive zone
Hartman 59.4%
Neutral zone
Hartman 51.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
MacKinnon
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
MacKinnon
Hartman
Last 10: MacKinnon 5-5 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Hartman
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
3
MacKinnon
Hartman
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
1
MacKinnon
Hartman
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
48.1% (520)
+1.1%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
44.7% (47)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
47.8% (23)
+1.3%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
MacKinnon shoots right. Hartman is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Hartman
Home
50.9% (740)
48.3% (360)
Away
49.0% (774)
47.0% (230)
By Period
MacKinnon
Hartman
P1
50.9%
48.5%
P2
51.8%
45.2%
P3
47.1%
49.6%
OT
58.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:13 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:03 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 08:49 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 01:03 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 01:03 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:43 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 08:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 04:23 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:25 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 18:27 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:46 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:29 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |