Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 44.5% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.9% vs Hartman 44.0% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 52.6%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 52.9%
Neutral zone
Hartman 52.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
MacKinnon
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
MacKinnon
Hartman
Last 10: MacKinnon 7-3 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
2
3
MacKinnon
Hartman
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Hartman
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
1
MacKinnon
Hartman
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (1,053)
42.6% (495)
+2.1%
Power Play
36.8% (95)
38.5% (26)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
65.0% (20)
48.8% (43)
+16.2%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (308).
MacKinnon shoots right. Hartman is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (158).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Hartman
Home
49.4% (553)
43.4% (288)
Away
40.0% (615)
42.4% (276)
By Period
MacKinnon
Hartman
P1
45.3%
43.1%
P2
42.7%
43.4%
P3
45.1%
42.0%
OT
46.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.8%
44.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2023 | 3 | 14:07 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 3 | 13:41 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 2 | 03:26 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 2 | 00:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 1 | 10:43 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 1 | 03:24 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 1 | 00:45 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 3 | 15:40 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 3 | 14:07 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 16:31 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 16:28 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 09:40 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |