Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.2% vs 47.0%). Look for Hartman on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Hartman 47.3% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 59.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 54.0%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 56.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
MacKinnon
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
MacKinnon
Hartman
Last 6: MacKinnon 2-4 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
1
MacKinnon
Hartman
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
3
MacKinnon
Hartman
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Hartman
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
47.1% (649)
-1.6%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
47.1% (68)
+9.3%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
45.2% (73)
-5.2%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (409).
MacKinnon shoots right. Hartman is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (182).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Hartman
Home
47.8% (670)
46.5% (361)
Away
44.6% (644)
47.3% (429)
By Period
MacKinnon
Hartman
P1
45.3%
45.1%
P2
48.5%
44.4%
P3
45.0%
50.9%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 02:35 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 12:19 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 8, 2024 | 3 | 04:06 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 8, 2024 | 2 | 19:06 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 04:56 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 17:43 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |