Nathan MacKinnon vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (72% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Nugent-Hopkins 44.8% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 25-16 in 41 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 60.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 55.6%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 50.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
16
(41 meetings)
25
16
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 10: MacKinnon 7-3 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
13
5
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
3
7
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
9
4
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,218)
44.9% (8,756)
+1.2%
Power Play
53.3% (1,412)
50.7% (839)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
37.9% (879)
+4.9%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
MacKinnon shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,645).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
49.7% (6,444)
46.5% (5,350)
Away
44.0% (6,689)
42.9% (5,136)
By Period
MacKinnon
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
47.4%
45.1%
P2
46.6%
43.9%
P3
46.1%
45.3%
OT
48.4%
43.5%
Final 5 min
49.0%
43.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 07:47 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 12:37 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 18:09 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 14:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 04:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 13:14 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:21 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 16:41 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 1 | 07:25 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 3 | 05:07 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 14, 2019 | 3 | 14:29 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 14, 2019 | 2 | 02:47 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 3 | 17:29 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 2 | 12:46 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 2 | 17:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 2 | 15:14 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 2 | 10:26 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 2 | 01:50 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |