Nathan MacKinnon vs Ryan Poehling
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Poehling 47.4% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 11-8 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 87.9%
Defensive zone
Poehling 78.3%
Neutral zone
Poehling 53.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
MacKinnon
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
8
(19 meetings)
11
8
MacKinnon
Poehling
Last 10: MacKinnon 8-2 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
9
1
MacKinnon
Poehling
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
1
7
MacKinnon
Poehling
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Poehling
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
49.8% (626)
+0.2%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
58.3% (12)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
38.2% (207)
-3.8%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Poehling is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Poehling
Home
53.3% (591)
47.3% (404)
Away
49.6% (581)
46.9% (441)
By Period
MacKinnon
Poehling
P1
49.9%
53.5%
P2
53.2%
39.4%
P3
50.8%
49.1%
OT
66.7%
35.7%
Final 5 min
56.1%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 04:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OT | 02:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 18:41 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 16:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 11:23 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 06:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 03:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 08:49 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 06:58 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 05:47 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:09 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 07:31 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 16:51 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 06:37 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 03:21 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 03:11 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |