Nathan MacKinnon vs Ryan Poehling
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Poehling 48.1% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 17-16 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 74.3%
Defensive zone
Poehling 68.3%
Neutral zone
Poehling 57.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
MacKinnon
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
16
(33 meetings)
17
16
MacKinnon
Poehling
Last 10: MacKinnon 8-2 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
14
2
MacKinnon
Poehling
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
2
10
MacKinnon
Poehling
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
1
4
MacKinnon
Poehling
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,218)
49.4% (2,726)
-3.3%
Power Play
53.3% (1,412)
51.6% (93)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
41.6% (623)
+1.2%
On even strength, Poehling has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
MacKinnon shoots right. Poehling is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,141).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Poehling
Home
49.7% (6,444)
49.3% (1,688)
Away
44.0% (6,689)
46.9% (1,754)
By Period
MacKinnon
Poehling
P1
47.4%
50.9%
P2
46.6%
47.0%
P3
46.1%
46.9%
OT
48.4%
37.9%
Final 5 min
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 04:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OT | 02:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 18:41 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 16:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 11:23 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 06:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 03:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 08:49 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 06:58 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 05:47 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:09 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 07:31 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 16:51 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 06:37 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 03:21 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 03:11 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 2 | 09:43 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |