Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 45.1% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 50.7% vs Wright 40.3% (+13.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 55.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 51.3%
Neutral zone
Wright 53.9%
Result
Shane Wright favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
MacKinnon
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
MacKinnon
Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wright
0
2
MacKinnon
Wright
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Wright
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (825)
37.2% (344)
+11.9%
Power Play
65.4% (130)
43.9% (41)
+21.5%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
0.0% (1)
+34.5%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +34.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (268).
MacKinnon shoots right. Wright is 37.0% vs right-shot opponents (92).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Wright
Home
52.6% (489)
37.0% (211)
Away
49.1% (495)
38.9% (175)
By Period
MacKinnon
Wright
P1
50.3%
37.5%
P2
52.6%
38.4%
P3
49.2%
38.1%
OT
62.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.6%
37.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.8%
Wright
34.0%▼
36.5%
37.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 10:38 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 19:24 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 13:29 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:41 | Offensive | Shane Wright |