Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Wright on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Wright 45.1% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 73.0%
Defensive zone
Wright 71.1%
Neutral zone
Wright 70.3%
Result
Shane Wright favored at 71.5%
28.5%
71.5%
MacKinnon
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
MacKinnon
Wright
Last 7: MacKinnon 2-5 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wright
1
2
MacKinnon
Wright
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wright
1
3
MacKinnon
Wright
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
43.9% (758)
+5.3%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
50.7% (67)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
40.0% (5)
+9.1%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
MacKinnon shoots right. Wright is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (226).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Wright
Home
50.9% (740)
46.3% (406)
Away
49.0% (774)
42.7% (424)
By Period
MacKinnon
Wright
P1
50.9%
46.8%
P2
51.8%
42.6%
P3
47.1%
44.4%
OT
58.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.2%
43.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 17:34 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 15:16 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 13:45 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 04:01 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 17:31 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 07:13 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 03:39 | Offensive | Shane Wright |