Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Wright 41.4% (+11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 54.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 50.5%
Neutral zone
Wright 52.3%
Result
Shane Wright favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
MacKinnon
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
MacKinnon
Wright
Last 6: MacKinnon 3-3 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wright
0
2
MacKinnon
Wright
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Wright
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Wright
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
39.5% (453)
+10.5%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
42.4% (59)
+22.5%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
0.0% (1)
+34.4%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +34.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
MacKinnon shoots right. Wright is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (119).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Wright
Home
53.3% (591)
39.5% (286)
Away
49.6% (581)
40.1% (227)
By Period
MacKinnon
Wright
P1
49.9%
39.9%
P2
53.2%
37.1%
P3
50.8%
42.9%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 19:18 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 07:20 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 10:38 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 19:24 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 13:29 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:41 | Offensive | Shane Wright |