Nathan MacKinnon vs Wyatt Johnston
2022-23 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). MacKinnon wins 44.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.9% vs Johnston 44.8% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 66.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 50.3%
Neutral zone
Johnston 52.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
MacKinnon
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
MacKinnon
Johnston
Last 8: MacKinnon 2-6 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Johnston
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
5
MacKinnon
Johnston
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (1,053)
42.5% (318)
+2.2%
Power Play
36.8% (95)
55.6% (9)
-18.8%
Penalty Kill
65.0% (20)
62.5% (8)
+2.5%
On power play, Johnston has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (308).
MacKinnon shoots right. Johnston is 49.1% vs right-shot opponents (106).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Johnston
Home
49.4% (553)
40.5% (168)
Away
40.0% (615)
46.1% (167)
By Period
MacKinnon
Johnston
P1
45.3%
46.9%
P2
42.7%
40.4%
P3
45.1%
41.9%
OT
46.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
49.8%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
43.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 11:54 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 03:00 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 03:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 16:03 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 10:09 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 03:48 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 03:33 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |