Nathan MacKinnon vs Wyatt Johnston
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Johnston 51.0% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 75.0%
Defensive zone
Johnston 65.2%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
MacKinnon
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
10
(16 meetings)
6
10
MacKinnon
Johnston
Last 10: MacKinnon 3-7 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
6
MacKinnon
Johnston
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
2
3
MacKinnon
Johnston
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
1
MacKinnon
Johnston
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
52.6% (696)
-3.4%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
52.3% (88)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
42.4% (125)
+6.7%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
MacKinnon shoots right. Johnston is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (204).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Johnston
Home
50.9% (740)
52.8% (458)
Away
49.0% (774)
49.4% (451)
By Period
MacKinnon
Johnston
P1
50.9%
48.9%
P2
51.8%
52.3%
P3
47.1%
51.4%
OT
58.8%
70.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:51 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:39 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 05:17 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:29 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 12:55 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 12:51 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:12 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:10 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:07 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 14:32 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 12:31 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 00:38 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 12:11 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 06:03 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |