Nathan MacKinnon vs Wyatt Johnston
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Johnston 50.1% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 72.8%
Defensive zone
Johnston 53.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 52.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
MacKinnon
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
MacKinnon
Johnston
Last 5: MacKinnon 2-3 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
MacKinnon
Johnston
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
MacKinnon
Johnston
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Johnston
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
50.7% (552)
-5.2%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
61.5% (13)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
43.5% (69)
-3.5%
On even strength, Johnston has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (409).
MacKinnon shoots right. Johnston is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (136).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Johnston
Home
47.8% (670)
50.3% (342)
Away
44.6% (644)
50.0% (292)
By Period
MacKinnon
Johnston
P1
45.3%
54.4%
P2
48.5%
47.2%
P3
45.0%
49.4%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 19:15 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 05:58 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 18:45 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 09:07 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |