Nathan MacKinnon vs Wyatt Johnston
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Johnston 49.1% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 29-18 in 47 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 73.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 55.2%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 60.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 63.5%
63.5%
36.5%
MacKinnon
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
29
(47 meetings)
18
29
MacKinnon
Johnston
Last 10: MacKinnon 7-3 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
6
9
MacKinnon
Johnston
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
2
9
MacKinnon
Johnston
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
10
11
MacKinnon
Johnston
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,218)
49.3% (2,189)
-3.2%
Power Play
53.3% (1,412)
52.6% (173)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
44.7% (237)
-1.9%
On even strength, Johnston has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
MacKinnon shoots right. Johnston is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Johnston
Home
49.7% (6,444)
49.2% (1,319)
Away
44.0% (6,689)
49.0% (1,280)
By Period
MacKinnon
Johnston
P1
47.4%
50.1%
P2
46.6%
48.3%
P3
46.1%
48.8%
OT
48.4%
51.6%
Final 5 min
49.0%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 18:55 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 18:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 05:06 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 02:25 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 13:32 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 13:26 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 13:15 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 10:50 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 06:46 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 11:24 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 12:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:07 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:37 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:21 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:51 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:39 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |