Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.9% vs 49.6%). Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Gourde 49.7% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 65.6%
Defensive zone
Gourde 69.5%
Neutral zone
Gourde 58.5%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
MacKinnon
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
MacKinnon
Gourde
Last 8: MacKinnon 7-1 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
0
MacKinnon
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
MacKinnon
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
0
MacKinnon
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
51.2% (469)
-2.0%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
42.9% (21)
+12.0%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
37.5% (48)
+11.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
MacKinnon shoots right. Gourde is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (180).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Gourde
Home
50.9% (740)
47.8% (301)
Away
49.0% (774)
51.9% (237)
By Period
MacKinnon
Gourde
P1
50.9%
47.3%
P2
51.8%
53.4%
P3
47.1%
48.6%
OT
58.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.2%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 12:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 12:58 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 06:17 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 14:56 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 07:20 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 03:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |