Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Gourde 48.0% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 51.4%
Defensive zone
Gourde 70.5%
Neutral zone
Gourde 62.3%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 63.8%
36.2%
63.8%
MacKinnon
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
MacKinnon
Gourde
Last 9: MacKinnon 6-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
2
MacKinnon
Gourde
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
48.0% (914)
-2.5%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
54.2% (48)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
43.9% (123)
-3.9%
On penalty kill, Gourde has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
MacKinnon shoots right. Gourde is 47.7% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Gourde
Home
47.8% (670)
50.2% (512)
Away
44.6% (644)
45.7% (573)
By Period
MacKinnon
Gourde
P1
45.3%
50.0%
P2
48.5%
45.3%
P3
45.0%
48.6%
OT
33.3%
20.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2023 | 2 | 17:25 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 2 | 12:05 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 2 | 11:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 2 | 06:04 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 1 | 09:15 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 1 | 06:23 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 1 | 06:13 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 11:35 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |