Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Gourde 46.0% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 13-5 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 94.9%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 58.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 71.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 78.5%
78.5%
21.5%
MacKinnon
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
5
(18 meetings)
13
5
MacKinnon
Gourde
Last 10: MacKinnon 7-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
5
2
MacKinnon
Gourde
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
6
2
MacKinnon
Gourde
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
47.2% (654)
+2.8%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
45.0% (20)
+19.9%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
32.2% (87)
+2.2%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Gourde is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Gourde
Home
53.3% (591)
44.1% (322)
Away
49.6% (581)
46.5% (439)
By Period
MacKinnon
Gourde
P1
49.9%
42.4%
P2
53.2%
49.8%
P3
50.8%
44.3%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 15:07 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 16:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 09:31 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 03:22 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 00:11 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 19:48 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 10:58 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 06:56 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 03:26 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:31 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:18 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 13:38 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 13:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:55 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |