Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKinnon wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.9% vs Gourde 49.7% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Gourde 52.6%
Defensive zone
Gourde 57.3%
Neutral zone
Gourde 66.4%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 58.2%
41.8%
58.2%
MacKinnon
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
MacKinnon
Gourde
Last 10: MacKinnon 5-5 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
4
MacKinnon
Gourde
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
2
MacKinnon
Gourde
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
1
MacKinnon
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (1,053)
49.1% (847)
-4.4%
Power Play
36.8% (95)
79.5% (44)
-42.7%
Penalty Kill
65.0% (20)
39.5% (81)
+25.5%
On power play, Gourde has a +42.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
MacKinnon shoots right. Gourde is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Gourde
Home
49.4% (553)
50.1% (491)
Away
40.0% (615)
49.3% (481)
By Period
MacKinnon
Gourde
P1
45.3%
54.7%
P2
42.7%
45.0%
P3
45.1%
49.4%
OT
46.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.8%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2023 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 3 | 02:15 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 3 | 02:04 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 2 | 15:39 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 1 | 13:58 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 15:18 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 10:57 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 17:48 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 04:11 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 04:06 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 1 | 16:47 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 1 | 16:27 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 1 | 09:21 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |