Scouting Report
Nazem Kadri holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Kadri wins 44.9% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 46.5% vs Cates 45.1% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Kadri 69.4%
Defensive zone
Cates 76.4%
Neutral zone
Cates 56.8%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Kadri
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Kadri
Cates
Last 10: Kadri 4-6 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Kadri
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
2
Kadri
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
3
6
Kadri
Cates
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (1,295)
46.7% (912)
-1.0%
Power Play
52.7% (146)
33.9% (56)
+18.8%
Penalty Kill
34.8% (23)
35.0% (137)
-0.2%
On power play, Kadri has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Kadri is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,030).
Kadri shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Kadri
Cates
Home
46.5% (725)
46.1% (521)
Away
46.0% (739)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Kadri
Cates
P1
47.2%
48.0%
P2
44.9%
42.3%
P3
46.3%
44.3%
OT
51.4%
31.3%
Final 5 min
46.3%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
46.2%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:49 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:43 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 09:07 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 08:55 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 16:33 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 14:15 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 11:25 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 17:29 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:06 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 14:06 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 05:41 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 12:49 | Offensive | Noah Cates |