Scouting Report
Nazem Kadri holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kadri on neutral-zone draws (59% H2H, 17 meetings). Kadri wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 48.7% vs Cates 43.2% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Kadri leads 17-14 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Kadri 81.1%
Defensive zone
Kadri 51.9%
Neutral zone
Kadri 63.3%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 63.8%
63.8%
36.2%
Kadri
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
14
(31 meetings)
17
14
Kadri
Cates
Last 10: Kadri 7-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
4
2
Kadri
Cates
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
3
5
Kadri
Cates
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kadri
10
7
Kadri
Cates
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (12,510)
44.1% (2,742)
+4.1%
Power Play
53.0% (1,892)
43.0% (242)
+10.0%
Penalty Kill
41.0% (293)
34.9% (373)
+6.1%
On power play, Kadri has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Kadri is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (9,379).
Kadri shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Home / Away
Kadri
Cates
Home
49.1% (7,467)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
48.1% (7,231)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Kadri
Cates
P1
49.2%
44.5%
P2
48.8%
43.5%
P3
48.0%
41.2%
OT
49.0%
29.4%
Final 5 min
48.2%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
48.6%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 10:07 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 06:51 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 04:56 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 04:45 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 04:56 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 02:30 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 02:15 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 06:29 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:49 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:43 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 09:07 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 08:55 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 16:33 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 14:15 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 11:25 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 17:29 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:06 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 14:06 | Defensive | Noah Cates |