Scouting Report
Nazem Kadri holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kadri on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Kadri wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 47.6% vs Cates 45.5% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 74.4%
Defensive zone
Cates 50.5%
Neutral zone
Kadri 61.1%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Kadri
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Kadri
Cates
Last 8: Kadri 6-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
2
0
Kadri
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Kadri
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kadri
4
1
Kadri
Cates
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (821)
45.4% (712)
+2.0%
Power Play
48.8% (86)
42.2% (102)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (13)
44.7% (47)
-6.2%
On power play, Kadri has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Kadri is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (595).
Kadri shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Kadri
Cates
Home
46.6% (487)
46.3% (423)
Away
48.3% (433)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Kadri
Cates
P1
52.7%
46.3%
P2
50.2%
47.1%
P3
40.2%
42.1%
OT
44.4%
18.2%
Final 5 min
47.4%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
47.4%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 10:07 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 06:51 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 04:56 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 04:45 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 04:56 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 02:30 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 02:15 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 06:29 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |