Scouting Report
Nazem Kadri holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kadri wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 49.0% vs Carpenter 48.2% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 80.3%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 80.0%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 58.1%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
Kadri
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Kadri
Carpenter
Last 6: Kadri 2-4 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
2
0
Kadri
Carpenter
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
4
Kadri
Carpenter
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (975)
48.8% (404)
-1.1%
Power Play
54.0% (226)
100.0% (1)
-46.0%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (9)
43.6% (101)
+12.0%
On power play, Carpenter has a +46.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Kadri is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (416).
Kadri shoots left. Carpenter is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (366).
Home / Away
Kadri
Carpenter
Home
48.3% (621)
48.9% (274)
Away
49.6% (589)
46.6% (232)
By Period
Kadri
Carpenter
P1
48.1%
51.9%
P2
48.9%
49.4%
P3
49.8%
41.8%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
48.3%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
48.9%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 13:22 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 07:09 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 01:23 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 16:57 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 12:27 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 08:38 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |