Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kadri wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 47.6% vs O'Reilly 54.8% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 77.0%
Defensive zone
Kadri 77.0%
Neutral zone
Kadri 75.9%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 76.7%
76.7%
23.3%
Kadri
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Kadri
O'Reilly
Last 7: Kadri 1-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Kadri
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Kadri
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kadri
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (821)
55.3% (815)
-7.9%
Power Play
48.8% (86)
58.0% (219)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (13)
49.2% (124)
-10.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kadri is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (595).
Kadri shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (660).
Home / Away
Kadri
O'Reilly
Home
46.6% (487)
55.8% (579)
Away
48.3% (433)
54.6% (579)
By Period
Kadri
O'Reilly
P1
52.7%
57.5%
P2
50.2%
54.7%
P3
40.2%
54.1%
OT
44.4%
48.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
47.4%
O'Reilly
48.0%▼
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 19:39 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 17:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 02:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 16:29 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 12:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 10:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |