Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (74% H2H, 68 meetings). Kadri wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 48.7% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 119-69 in 188 meetings
Offensive zone
Kadri 86.1%
Defensive zone
Kadri 95.0%
Neutral zone
Kadri 92.1%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 91.3%
91.3%
8.7%
Kadri
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
69
-
119
(188 meetings)
69
119
Kadri
O'Reilly
Last 10: Kadri 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
29
30
Kadri
O'Reilly
59 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
18
50
Kadri
O'Reilly
68 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
22
39
Kadri
O'Reilly
61 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (12,510)
56.2% (15,260)
-8.0%
Power Play
53.0% (1,892)
58.8% (3,445)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
41.0% (293)
51.4% (2,811)
-10.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kadri is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (9,379).
Kadri shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Kadri
O'Reilly
Home
49.1% (7,467)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
48.1% (7,231)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Kadri
O'Reilly
P1
49.2%
55.6%
P2
48.8%
57.0%
P3
48.0%
55.1%
OT
49.0%
62.2%
Final 5 min
48.2%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
48.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 19:39 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 17:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 02:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 16:29 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 12:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 10:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 16:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 16:39 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 08:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 19:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 17:22 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 17:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 17:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:30 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:04 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:20 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 12:19 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |