Scouting Report
Nazem Kadri holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kadri on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kadri wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 47.6% vs Novak 43.4% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 55.2%
Defensive zone
Kadri 60.6%
Neutral zone
Kadri 62.6%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 61.4%
61.4%
38.6%
Kadri
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Kadri
Novak
Last 5: Kadri 3-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
2
1
Kadri
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kadri
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (821)
41.4% (379)
+6.0%
Power Play
48.8% (86)
46.9% (32)
+1.9%
On even strength, Kadri has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Kadri is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (595).
Kadri shoots left. Novak is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Kadri
Novak
Home
46.6% (487)
42.6% (195)
Away
48.3% (433)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Kadri
Novak
P1
52.7%
42.4%
P2
50.2%
39.2%
P3
40.2%
44.7%
OT
44.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.4%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
47.4%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 16:43 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 07:22 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 00:57 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 07:03 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:11 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |