Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.4% vs 48.3%). Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kadri wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 47.6% vs Johnston 48.5% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 73.6%
Defensive zone
Johnston 57.9%
Neutral zone
Kadri 58.3%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 60.1%
60.1%
39.9%
Kadri
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Kadri
Johnston
Last 7: Kadri 2-5 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Kadri
Johnston
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
3
Kadri
Johnston
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (821)
47.8% (623)
-0.4%
Power Play
48.8% (86)
50.8% (63)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (13)
51.4% (35)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Kadri is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (325).
Kadri shoots left. Johnston is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (535).
Home / Away
Kadri
Johnston
Home
46.6% (487)
47.6% (351)
Away
48.3% (433)
48.9% (370)
By Period
Kadri
Johnston
P1
52.7%
49.6%
P2
50.2%
47.3%
P3
40.2%
48.0%
OT
44.4%
46.7%
Final 5 min
47.4%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
47.4%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 15:33 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 14:49 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 14:42 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 04:19 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 10:48 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:09 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 19:09 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |