Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Blackwell on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Blackwell 47.7% vs Dowd 50.7% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Blackwell leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Blackwell 69.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 80.5%
Neutral zone
Dowd 64.9%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 67.7%
32.3%
67.7%
Blackwell
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Blackwell
Dowd
Last 10: Blackwell 6-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Blackwell
1
0
Blackwell
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
3
Blackwell
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Blackwell
4
1
Blackwell
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Blackwell
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (698)
52.4% (6,009)
-3.3%
Power Play
63.2% (38)
56.1% (164)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
40.8% (260)
44.1% (1,635)
-3.3%
On power play, Blackwell has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Blackwell is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (205).
Blackwell shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Home / Away
Blackwell
Dowd
Home
45.8% (480)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
49.0% (516)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Blackwell
Dowd
P1
47.1%
51.7%
P2
47.7%
50.4%
P3
47.6%
50.3%
OT
50.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
52.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Blackwell
44.0%▬
44.5%
47.5%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 02:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Colin Blackwell |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 14:48 | Neutral | Colin Blackwell |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 2 | 17:05 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 1 | 13:00 | Neutral | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 3 | 04:15 | Neutral | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 2 | 14:43 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 2 | 11:06 | Neutral | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 1 | 05:57 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 1 | 02:27 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |