Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 42.2% vs Dowd 50.8% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 91.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 73.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 76.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 79.5%
79.5%
20.5%
McDavid
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
McDavid
Dowd
Last 5: McDavid 0-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
McDavid
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
McDavid
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (855)
51.6% (343)
-10.2%
Power Play
47.8% (23)
50.0% (2)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
35.5% (31)
47.1% (51)
-11.6%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. McDavid is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (335).
McDavid shoots left. Dowd is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (267).
Home / Away
McDavid
Dowd
Home
42.8% (451)
43.0% (172)
Away
40.0% (458)
57.1% (224)
By Period
McDavid
Dowd
P1
38.0%
47.4%
P2
44.9%
60.6%
P3
41.7%
44.7%
OT
20.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.9%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
41.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 09:02 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 08:56 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 01:46 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 1 | 00:55 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |