Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Dowd 50.7% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 82.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 58.3%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
McDavid
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
McDavid
Dowd
Last 8: McDavid 2-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
McDavid
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
4
McDavid
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
55.2% (625)
-3.7%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
57.1% (7)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
38.2% (220)
+13.0%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
McDavid
Dowd
Home
50.7% (513)
53.7% (445)
Away
53.2% (498)
47.7% (407)
By Period
McDavid
Dowd
P1
52.3%
48.8%
P2
51.6%
49.3%
P3
51.7%
54.0%
OT
100.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
56.5%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2022 | 3 | 15:10 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 3 | 02:54 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2 | 14:19 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2 | 14:10 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2 | 00:26 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 1 | 15:32 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 1 | 00:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 1 | 00:21 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |