Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Hayes wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 43.8% vs Dowd 53.3% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 90.2%
Defensive zone
Hayes 55.4%
Neutral zone
Hayes 74.5%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 64.6%
64.6%
35.4%
Hayes
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Hayes
Dowd
Last 8: Hayes 2-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
5
Hayes
Dowd
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
42.7% (478)
55.4% (771)
-12.7%
Power Play
42.9% (98)
57.1% (7)
-14.2%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (31)
45.5% (165)
-0.3%
On power play, Dowd has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Hayes is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (219).
Hayes shoots left. Dowd is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Hayes
Dowd
Home
43.5% (232)
58.2% (462)
Away
42.4% (375)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Hayes
Dowd
P1
40.1%
55.6%
P2
44.8%
50.5%
P3
42.4%
53.9%
OT
80.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
44.3%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 15:00 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 12:14 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 03:31 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 2 | 19:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 2 | 09:15 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 17:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 10:16 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 03:03 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |